Refunds For Illegal Trump Tariffs Could Reach Up To $182 Billion, Analysts Say

The U.S. government may ultimately have to return as much as $182 billion to businesses that paid tariffs imposed during President Donald Trump’s administration after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled those duties illegal.

A federal judge ordered the government earlier this week to begin developing a plan to refund the tariffs, potentially triggering one of the largest trade-related reimbursements in U.S. history.

Court Orders Refund Process to Begin

Senior Judge Richard Eaton of the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that the government must repay companies that were charged tariffs later deemed unlawful.

“I want to make it clear to the customs service that they have to refund any money that was unlawfully collected,” Eaton said during a court hearing on Wednesday.

The judge instructed U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to present an initial proposal outlining how the refunds will be issued.

Officials are expected to provide that plan during a court update scheduled for Friday.

Eaton has emphasized that the process should allow importers to recover their money without requiring thousands of separate lawsuits.

Massive Sums Collected Under Emergency Tariff Powers

The tariffs at the center of the dispute were imposed using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a law that allows presidents to regulate economic transactions during national emergencies.

The Supreme Court ruled in late February that the Trump administration exceeded its authority under the law, effectively invalidating the tariffs.

That decision forced the government to begin considering how to repay businesses that paid the duties over the past year.

Economic analysts say the amount owed could be enormous.

Penn Wharton Analysis: Up to $182 Billion

Economists at the Penn Wharton Budget Model, a research group at the University of Pennsylvania, estimate that between $177 billion and $182 billion in tariffs were collected under the IEEPA authority between February 4, 2025, and February 23, 2026.

Their estimate was produced at the request of Reuters.

Researchers used a detailed forecasting model that analyzed tariff rates across approximately 11,000 product categories imported from 233 countries.

The model calculated the total value of tariffs collected on those imports during the period in question.

Penn Wharton also produced a second estimate of roughly $177 billion, using a different methodology that analyzed Treasury customs receipts and the share attributed to IEEPA tariffs.

For reference, Customs and Border Protection reported that $133.5 billion had already been collected under the program by December 14, 2025.

Yale Budget Lab Estimates Slightly Lower Total

Another research group, the Budget Lab at Yale University, produced a somewhat lower estimate.

Using projections based on the same customs data, Yale economists estimated that about $168 billion in tariffs had been collected under the disputed policy by February 19, 2026.

Although the figure is lower than the Penn Wharton estimate, it still represents an enormous potential financial obligation for the federal government.

Tariffs Dramatically Increased Federal Customs Revenue

According to Yale researchers, Trump’s 2025 tariff policies significantly boosted government revenue.

By January 2026, tariffs imposed that year had increased inflation-adjusted customs revenue by $194.8 billion above the average levels recorded between 2022 and 2024.

That increase consisted of:

• $174.7 billion in additional revenue during 2025
• $20.1 billion collected in January 2026

Before the Supreme Court ruling, researchers calculated that the effective U.S. tariff rate had risen to about 9.9%, a level far higher than typical U.S. trade policy in recent decades.

Temporary Tariffs Introduced After Court Ruling

Following the Supreme Court decision invalidating the emergency tariffs, the Trump administration implemented a temporary global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

The new tariff initially imposed a 10% duty on imports, with plans to increase it to 15%.

Unlike the earlier emergency tariffs, Section 122 duties can only remain in effect for 150 days unless Congress approves an extension.

Potential Revenue From Temporary Tariffs

Budget analysts say the temporary tariffs could partially offset the financial impact of refunding the illegal duties.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimates:

• A 10% tariff could generate about $35 billion during the allowed 150-day period.
• Increasing the rate to 15% could produce around $50 billion.

If Congress were to extend the tariff or implement similar policies long term, the revenue could be far larger.

Over the next decade, CRFB estimates the tariffs could generate:

• More than $900 billion at a 10% rate
• Around $1.3 trillion at a 15% rate

Other Estimates Suggest Even Larger Long-Term Revenue

The Penn Wharton Budget Model produced an even higher long-term projection.

Economists there estimate that a 15% tariff maintained for 10 years could generate about $1.51 trillion in revenue.

If the policy were kept in place throughout 2026 alone, Penn Wharton estimates it could generate roughly $136 billion that year.

A Complex Refund Process Ahead

While the financial totals are becoming clearer, the process for returning the money remains uncertain.

Customs officials may need to review tens of millions of import records in order to determine how much each company is owed.

In addition, courts are currently dealing with thousands of lawsuits filed by importers seeking reimbursement.

Judge Eaton has indicated he wants to establish a system that allows businesses to receive refunds through administrative procedures rather than lengthy court battles.

One of the Largest Trade Refunds in U.S. History

If the higher estimates prove accurate, the refunds could represent one of the largest reimbursements ever ordered in a U.S. trade dispute.

The case also raises broader questions about the limits of presidential authority in imposing tariffs and how the government should unwind large-scale economic policies that are later ruled unconstitutional.

For now, businesses and government agencies alike are waiting for the court’s upcoming guidance on how the unprecedented refund effort will unfold.