Polls Suggest Many Voters Now View Biden’s Presidency More Favorably Than Trump’s First Year

A series of new national polls indicates that many American voters now believe former President Joe Biden performed better in office than Donald Trump, even though Biden left the presidency amid declining approval ratings that ultimately pushed him out of the political spotlight.

The surveys, released roughly one year into Trump’s current term, suggest the president has struggled to maintain the political momentum that helped him return to the White House. Analysts say the results could signal potential trouble for Republicans if public sentiment does not improve before the upcoming midterm elections.

Polls Show Voters Comparing Trump Unfavorably to Biden

Three separate polls conducted by different organizations all point to a similar trend: a significant share of voters believe Trump’s current performance falls short of Biden’s time in office.

A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, conducted January 28–29, found that 51% of registered voters believe Trump is doing a worse job than Biden did as president. In contrast, 49% said Trump is doing better, indicating a nearly even split but with a slight disadvantage for the current president.

Another survey from Rasmussen Reports, carried out between February 2–4, reached a similar conclusion. In that poll, 48% of likely voters said Biden had been the better president, while 40% favored Trump’s performance. An additional 8% said both presidents performed about the same.

Meanwhile, a YouGov/Economist poll conducted from February 6–9 also showed voters leaning toward Biden in retrospective comparisons. The survey found that 46% of U.S. adults believe Trump is doing a worse job, while 40% say he is performing better than Biden. About 7% said the two presidencies were roughly equivalent.

Taken together, the three polls indicate that public opinion has shifted in a way that places Trump under growing scrutiny just a year into his new term.

Debate Over “Trump Amnesia” Reappears

During Biden’s final year in office, many of his allies argued that voters had forgotten the controversies and turmoil of Trump’s first presidency. They referred to the phenomenon as “Trump amnesia,” suggesting that dissatisfaction with Biden was causing voters to overlook the challenges of Trump’s earlier administration.

Now, some supporters of Trump’s political movement are making a similar argument in reverse. They say voters are overlooking the policy goals and accomplishments Trump claims to be pursuing during his second presidency.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai defended the administration’s record in a statement, emphasizing the scale of Trump’s electoral victory and his policy priorities.

“Nearly 80 million Americans gave President Trump a resounding Election Day mandate to end Joe Biden’s economic disaster and immigration crisis,” Desai said.

He added that the administration remains focused on reducing inflation, strengthening economic growth, tightening border security, and expanding deportations of undocumented immigrants with criminal records.

Key Policy Issues Becoming Political Challenges

Despite the administration’s messaging, several polls suggest that Trump’s core policy areas are now becoming potential political liabilities.

An NBC News poll found that 49% of Americans strongly disapprove of how Trump has handled border security and immigration, issues that were central to his campaign and have long been considered political strengths for him.

Economic perceptions have also shifted. According to CNN polling analyst Harry Enten, Trump’s net approval rating on the economy currently sits at 18, which is significantly lower than at the same point in his first presidency. The decline is particularly pronounced among independent voters, where his economic rating has dropped by 53 points compared with early in his first term.

Young voters appear to have moved away from the president even more sharply. The YouGov/Economist poll shows Trump with a –42 net approval rating among voters aged 18 to 29, representing a dramatic 51-point drop from the +9 approval rating he held among that group at the beginning of his presidency.

Declining Support Among Key Voter Groups

Trump’s political coalition has traditionally relied heavily on voters without college degrees, a demographic that played a critical role in both of his presidential victories.

However, Enten says even that support base may be weakening.

“If you know anything about Donald Trump, you know that he built his two presidential victories on winning voters without a college degree,” Enten said. “Well, Donald Trump’s base with non-college voters is absolutely collapsing.”

Such shifts could complicate Republican strategy heading into the next election cycle if the trend continues.

Limited Nostalgia for the Biden Administration

Even with these polling comparisons, analysts caution that the data should not be interpreted as a broad resurgence of enthusiasm for Biden himself.

Several former officials from the Biden administration are currently running for political office, including congressional and gubernatorial races. Yet many of their campaigns have largely avoided emphasizing their connection to the former president.

This suggests that while voters may be reassessing Biden’s presidency relative to Trump’s current performance, it does not necessarily indicate widespread nostalgia for his administration.

Midterm Outlook Remains Uncertain

Despite the challenging polling environment, Republicans still maintain a significant financial advantage ahead of the midterm elections. According to The New York Times, Republican campaign committees and affiliated groups currently hold roughly $550 million more in funding than Democratic organizations.

That financial edge could play an important role in shaping the upcoming electoral landscape, even if public opinion continues to fluctuate.

Growing Pessimism About the Country’s Future

Broader measures of national sentiment also suggest rising concern among Americans about the country’s trajectory.

A recent Gallup survey found that optimism about the future has fallen to its lowest level in nearly twenty years. Only 59.2% of Americans say they expect to enjoy a high quality of life five years from now, a significant decline from previous levels of confidence.

The data reflects a wider mood of uncertainty as the country navigates economic pressures, geopolitical tensions, and a highly polarized political environment.

The Bottom Line

One year into Trump’s presidency, public opinion appears increasingly divided over his leadership. While his administration argues it is addressing major issues such as immigration and inflation, multiple polls suggest that many voters now view Biden’s time in office more favorably in comparison.

With the midterm elections approaching, the coming months could prove critical in determining whether the administration can shift public perception and rebuild political support.